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This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• Why the direction and amount of corporate capital expenditures (capex) can be a useful signal on the direction of the economy. Capex is defined as the investment in a company’s long-term assets—factories, equipment, machinery, office space, Al datacenters.

• To determine if capex is bullish, one can’t simply look at it in nominal terms. Instead, Mayur says we must look at net capital expenditures—the nominal figure minus depreciation. If capex exceeds depreciation, that indicates growth mode, and if it falls below, that signals conservation mode.

• Using Advisor Tools charting to plot capex for the S&P 500, Mayur shows that businesses have been in conservation mode for a long period, from 2016 – 2024. However, the direction of capex has been trending up for the last five years, and recently crossed into growth mode. How does the capex indicator compare to other economic indicators, and does Mayur foresee a bull or bear market ahead? Watch this week’s video to get the answers—and learn how capex offers a powerful method to assess the business cycle and the direction of the U.S. economy.

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• An overview of the top Semiconductor industry stocks in 2025, in what John calls the “first lesson” in his continuing analysis of the state of the Info Tech sector. This discussion is broken into two parts: first, the big picture of this rapidly-evolving industry, and then a look at valuations for these tickers using a variety of relevant metrics.

• To begin, John offers descriptions of semiconductors, including their various classifications, properties, and applications. He also walks through different types of players in the industry, including Fabless (chip design only); Foundries (manufacturing only); Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) that both design and build; and Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) specialists in semiconductor manufacturing back-end processes.

• John then presents an array of charts to illustrate performance metrics for Semiconductor companies, broken out into market caps ranging from micro-cap to mega-cap—with Nvidia (NVDA) in a class of its own due to its market cap of $3.85 trillion. Other companies reviewed in this analysis include big names like Broadcom (AVGO) and Qualcomm (QCOM), plus less familiar companies such as Himax Technologies (HIMX), Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), and Maxlinear (MXL). Get up to speed on this cutting-edge industry with this week’s video!

The views of John Blank, PhD are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• A 2025 update on the performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

• John presents a range of charts to illustrate performance metrics for these companies, which have dominated the S&P 500 for years. Using metrics ranging from Return on Equity to Revenue F12M, Net Margin, EPS Consensus and EPS surprise, he shows how these tickers have fared recently and how they are trending. John also includes pie charts to depict illuminating data like Critical Product Segments and Geographic Segment Revenue Percentage for these global companies.

• Which is the “all-star” of this group? John actually names two: As a company, NVIDIA is the undisputed champ for this year. But he also names another all-star that he describes as “a stock, not a company.” Find out who he is referring to, and learn more about the latest performance and John’s outlook for the Magnificent 7 in this week’s timely and informative video!

The views of John Blank, PhD are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• The likelihood of a recession in the coming months. While the media has been discussing the increasing possibility of a recession in 2025, Mayur focuses on what macroeconomic data tells us. Instead of the standard “two months of contraction” definition, Mayur offers the definition used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), based on six data sets: real personal income; nonfarm payrolls; real PCE; manufacturing & trade sales; household employment; and industrial production.

• Using Advisor Tools charting, Mayur examines the latest data for each of these six economic indicators. He points out three characteristics that must be assessed for each indicator in deciding the state of the business cycle: depth, diffusion, and duration.

• What is Mayur’s conclusion? Watch this week’s video to find out—and to get his key takeaways on the state of the economy and the extremely elevated S&P 500. Mayur also offers his ideas for recession-resistant stocks with durable moats, steady compounding, and low volatility. Don’t miss this expert assessment of the state of the U.S. economy and market.

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• Winning portfolios for 2025, built using his analyses of top stocks in four key sectors—Finance, Utilities, Transportation, Business Services.

• John uses a screening approach to find winners in these (and other) sectors based on three criteria to define top stocks: market capitalization; number of analysts following the stock; and largest percent change in F1 EPS estimate (the most important element used in assigning a Zacks Rank to stocks). In this week’s session, he evaluates 6-stock portfolios in each sector, built using each of the three definitions, to see which ones performed best.

• This analysis reveals that, depending on the stocks picked in each sector, it is possible to build portfolios with results that are quite varied—and can be substantially better. Throughout this analysis, John compares portfolios to “the Qs” (the stocks in the NASDAQ 100 Index) as a performance benchmark. Don’t miss this review of how this portfolio construction system performed for four key sectors in 2025!

The views of John Blank, PhD are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• His favorite metric, ROIC (Return on Invested Capital), and an updated look at a simple screen that can reveal companies that beat the market—big time. A self-described “ROIC fanatic”, Mayur has developed a screen that uses just 3 criteria: S&P 500 membership; Top 30% in terms of change in ROIC; and Top 10% in terms of revenue growth predictability.

• This screen delivers a group of 15 stocks, and Mayur sets a rebalance frequency of 12 weeks. Backtesting this screen from 2000 – 2025 delivers some truly eye-popping results, with double the total compounded return percentage of the S&P 500.

• Mayur also backtests the screen for the years 2015 – 2025, a period that included a long bull run, the Covid crash, and the post-Covid recovery. Even with the strong S&P 500 performance in this period, the screen significantly outperformed. Don’t miss this valuable look at Mayur’s “little screen that beats the market.”

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• Analysis of key U.S. importers and exporters, using fundamentals charts and price, EPS consensus, and EPS surprise charts. In addition, John looks at potential disruptions and distortions to supply chains, and discusses the paradoxical trade objectives the U.S. faces as the world’s reserve currency.

• In assessing the impact of tariffs on importers, John looks at metrics including Free Cash Flow, Net Margin %, Revenue F12M and others, for mainly large-cap stocks such as Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Nike (NKE) and more. John also reviews these metrics for exporters, including tickers like Apple (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Boeing (BA) and others.

• John wraps up with a review of other important tariff-related factors. He discusses major supply chain maritime routes, including trade volumes and shipping duration for each. He also looks at various functions in today’s highly complex supply chains, and how tariffs may impact them. Finally, he shares economist Robert Triffin’s theory concerning conflicting trade objectives when a nation’s currency also serves as a global reserve currency (like the U.S. dollar). Don’t miss this deep dive on the impact of tariffs for major U.S. companies.

The views of John Blank, PhD are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• More on tariffs and their role in international trade, business, foreign relations, and the economy. This week, John uses data and charts to detail the potential impacts of the 2025 Trump tariffs. As an economist with a PHD from MIT, John is ideally qualified to deliver an expert presentation about this critical issue.

• First, John delivers a macro perspective on trade, tariffs, and foreign exchange rates. He walks through key concepts including Intellectual Property Rights, Industrial Property Rights, the TRIPS Agreement and more. He also looks at the impact of the proposed tariffs on U.S. GDP, on long and short term Treasury yields, and on bilateral foreign exchange rates and equity indices for key countries, and other metrics that will likely be affected.

• John then reviews the most important potential effects of these tariffs on U.S. trade and economy, as well as global impacts. Positive outcomes could include reshoring of manufacturing and highlighting trade imbalances, while the negative consequences may include higher costs and supply chain disruptions. He also shares the bear market case of a “voluntary trade reset recession” laid out by Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management. Learn more about the fast-developing and essential topic of tariffs with this week’s strategy presentation.

The views of John Blank, PhD are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• His investment thesis of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). As the AI market develops, Mayur sees both AMD and Nvidia (NVDA) as well-positioned for success. However, because Nvidia is already a huge company and the industry leader, Mayur believes AMD has more room for growth and a compelling risk/reward ratio.

• Mayur believes one of the key advantages AMD has relative to Nvidia is in inference. Unlike AI training, which requires massive amounts of data (and where Nvidia enjoys a large lead), inference involves interpretation of the real world. In this nascent area of AI, Nvidia does not have a significant advantage over AMD. Inference could be an even bigger market than training over the next 5 years with the rise of real-world AI such as autonomous driving and robotics.

• After reviewing a recent history of AMD in relation to its competitors, as well as its recent stock performance, Mayur highlights two key revenue catalysts for 2025. He argues that if AMD can narrow the software gap with Nvidia, and if AI developers advance autonomous driving and humanoid robots for real-world AI applications, the size of the opportunity ahead is massive relative to AMD’s current market capitalization. Don’t miss this deep dive into the one of the companies on the cutting-edge of the AI revolution.

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• The current state of the trade wars and how to navigate them. He encourages investors not to fear tariffs and believes there will be further negotiations. As a result of these negotiations unveiled on “Liberation Day,” Mayur’s believes the trade wars will end with a hybrid of tariffs and free trade.

• Mayur believes tariffs will have a positive result in the long run by bringing jobs back to the U.S., raising substantial revenue for the government, and opening new geographic markets for U.S. companies to sell to. However, he indicates these positive gains will require short-term pain. Mayur dives into Robert Shiller’s CAPE yield spread and believes valuation will be the leading headwind for market returns.

• He ends the call with an overview of U.S. employment and believes there is a low probability of a recession. But with exaggerated valuations, he remains bearish on U.S. stocks and encourages investors to stay defensive with the Zacks Earnings Certain Proxy, comprised of durable, moat-protected companies, including Costco (COST), American Tower (AMT), Mettler Toledo (MTD), and more. Don’t miss this timely overview of the trade war environment.

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.