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This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA discusses:

• The latest entry in his regular series of macro updates. Mayur reviews the growing number of macroeconomic indicators that signal that a recession is ahead, though perhaps not imminent. Manufacturing gauges have been in recession for 18 months; the 10y – 2y UST yield curve has been inverted for 23 months; employment indicators including permanent job losers, cyclical employment, JOLTS and others are entering contraction; excess savings is nearly exhausted; and credit card delinquencies are rising…to name just a few.

• Meanwhile, the stock market continues to barrel ahead thanks to what Mayur characterizes as a “Goldilocks” blend of conditions including easing inflation, easing long-term yields, and more. While analysts look for 10% EPS growth in 2024, Mayur believes these estimates will be marked down as the sharp rise in the cost of capital will inevitably lead to rising delinquencies, defaults, bankruptcies, and ultimately job cuts.

• When does Mayur predict the recession will take hold? He doesn’t offer a specific date, but offers three key metrics for investors to watch that will signal when it’s time to go “full-blown defensive.” He also offers a defensive portfolio that he believes will offer investors the best protection from an economic downturn. Find out what Mayur’s key recession warning signs are in this week’s video, and be prepared for whatever the market brings in 2024!

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• A follow-up to his recent “Portfolio Insights Delivered by Top Consumer Stocks” video. This week, John continues this portfolio management theme using top stocks in the Medical sector, in comparison to stocks in three other market sectors—Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples, and Retail-Wholesale.

• John uses three criteria to find and to analyze top stocks in Medical (and the other sectors): market capitalization; the maximum number of analysts following the stock; and the largest one-month change in F1 estimates. By comparing metrics for stocks using various criteria, and also looking at differing weights for these stocks in a portfolio, he demonstrates how insights can be revealed to optimize performance, reduce risk, and more.

• John offers return analyses of various hypothetical Medical stock portfolios, and how they compare with other sectors. In addition, John provides a two-part Zacks Rank analysis, first using a trend EPS growth variable, followed by a standardized unexpected earnings variable. Don’t miss this interesting and helpful portfolio management webinar.

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA discusses:

• Two stocks that have been recently added to the Zacks Earning Certain Portfolio (ECP), and that are emblematic of the quality we look for when choosing members for this model portfolio. To begin today’s talk, Mayur walks through the 4 factors that comprise the Zacks definition of quality: high and durable earnings linearity, earnings growth, return on invested capital, and free cash flow conversion.

• The two new ECP members Mayur presents are CGI Inc. (CGI) and Gartner Inc. (IT). These companies are both technology-oriented, and provide excellent illustrations of what it means to be a quality company. To illustrate this, Mayur walks through some key metrics for each stock, including EPS, ROIC, Free Cash Flow Conversion, and many others.

• Mayur then dives into the latest earnings reports issued by both companies, covering the first 3 months of 2024. He looks at their actual reported numbers, as well as guidance for the rest of the year, to demonstrate the ‘high and durable’ performance that makes these companies perfect for the Earnings Certain Portfolio. Don’t miss this week’s webinar—it’s an excellent primer on how to discover quality stocks that can deliver long-term shareholder value.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• Portfolio management, and an approach to gain insights for those who want to build and maintain single-stock portfolios. John illustrates this analysis using top stocks in three key market sectors—Retail-Wholesale, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples.

• John uses three criteria to find and to analyze the 6 top stocks in each sector: First, market capitalization; second, the largest one-month change in F1 estimates; and finally, the maximum number of analysts following the stock. By comparing metrics for stocks using various criteria, and also looking at differing weights for these 6 top stocks in a portfolio, he demonstrates how insights can be revealed to optimize performance, reduce risk, and more.

• Using this “top stock” criteria, John examines how these 6 stocks perform as a portfolio, with the goal of gaining insights as to their variation, returns, and correlations. This analysis includes major, well-respected stocks, from Walmart (WMT) to Amazon (AMZN), Target (TGT to Dollar General (DG), and Procter & Gamble (PG) to Coca Cola (KO). Don’t miss this intriguing and useful webinar.

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA discusses:

• Current market valuation and whether we may be in a bubble. For this analysis, Mayur uses Zacks Research System (ZRS) to get a number of perspectives on current market expectations and whether it may be overvalued.

• First, he looks at standard market metrics including P/E F12M, Price/Free Cash Flow, EBIT Margin, and Shiller P/E. By these standards, Mayur believes the market, while high, is not in the bubble territory we saw in 2000.

• The story gets more complicated when these multiples are compared to the cost of capital In this analysis, Mayur shows that stocks are very expensive relative to 10-year Treasury yields, and that growth expectations are quite high. Watch this week’s video to learn whether Mayur considers the market to be in a bubble—and how he believes investors should position their portfolios.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• Top stocks in the Medical sector, a large and diverse area of the economy which includes drug manufacturers as well as medical care and medical product companies. In this webinar, John defines “top” stocks using three screening metrics: market capitalization, number of analysts following the stock, and largest percent change in F1 EPS estimate (the most important element used in assigning a Zacks Rank to stocks).

• Using this framework, John then examines key metrics for these leading names, using Zacks charting to illustrate comparisons of the most relevant trends for these companies. To point out strengths and weaknesses among these stocks, he looks at metrics ranging from Revenue F12M, EPS F12M, and Return on Equity to R&D as % of Sales, and DuPont analysis. John also spends some time discussing the role of the FDA in the pharma industry.

• Because he uses 3 types of screening metrics, John’s review of Medical players includes both large and relatively small companies, and both familiar and less well-known names. Among the tickers he discusses are Eli Lilly (LLY), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Soligenix (SNGX), GoodRx Holdings (GDRX), Astrana Health (ASTH), Progyny (PGNY), and many others. Don’t miss this in-depth analysis from Zacks’ Chief Equity Strategist!

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA discusses:

• An equity investing style that falls outside the ‘growth’ and ‘value’ buckets: quality-oriented investing. In Mayur’s opinion, quality is the single most important consideration in stock picking. But how do you define it? In this webinar, Mayur walks through the 4 factors that comprise the Zacks definition of quality: high and durable earnings linearity, earnings growth, return on invested capital, and free cash flow conversion.

• Mayur explains what each of these 4 factors means in terms of a company’s quality. He offers a pair of examples of quality companies, both of which are members of the Zacks Earning Certain Portfolio (ECP): CGI Inc. (CGI) and Gartner Inc. (IT). These companies are both technology-oriented, and provide excellent illustrations of what it means to be a quality company.

• To further elucidate this definition of quality, Mayur presents a series of charts that show historical performance for each stock. The charts make clear that these companies deliver “high and durable” earnings growth, return on invested capital, and free cash flow conversion. Go beyond growth and value—discover how quality stocks can deliver long-term shareholder value. Don’t miss this week’s webinar!

This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA discusses:

• The latest entry in his regular series of macro updates. This week, Mayur discusses the growing number of valuation metrics that are warning we are entering territory not seen since 2000, and cautions that they could indicate evidence of a market bubble as we experienced back then. Although the more traditional valuation measures remain reasonable, Mayur offers 4 metrics that suggest we are entering bubble territory.

• In addition, Mayur still has his eye on a number of macroeconomic indicators that continue to signal a recession ahead. Manufacturing gauges have been in recession for 16 months; the 10y – 2y UST yield curve has been inverted for 21 months; excess savings is well below trend; leading employment indicators are entering contraction; and credit card delinquencies are rising, to name just a few warning signs.

• How should investors react to these conditions? Mayur believes that the currently strong EPS estimates, signs of disinflation, and easing long-term yields offer a ‘Goldilocks’ blend of conditions that continue to fuel a powerful market rally. However, he advises investors to watch for three key metrics to know when to shift to a very defensive position. Watch this week’s webinar to find out what they are, and to get Mayur’s ideal defensive capital allocation for 2024.

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• Top stocks in the Retail-Wholesale sector, a wide-ranging area of the economy which includes both brick-and-mortar and online enterprises, and also food/drug and non-food companies. In this webinar, John defines “top” stocks using three screening metrics: market capitalization, number of analysts following the stock, and largest percent change in F1 EPS estimate (the most important element used in assigning a Zacks Rank to stocks).

• Using this framework, John then examines key metrics for these leading names, using Zacks charting to illustrate comparisons of the most relevant trends for these companies. To point out strengths and weaknesses among these stocks, he looks at metrics ranging from Total Return Performance, Revenue F12M, EPS F12M, and Return on Equity to Net Margin, Total Debt/Capital to EPS Consensus and EPS Surprise, to EBIT, Total Assets, Total Liabilities, and many more.

• John’s review of Retail-Wholesale players includes both large and relatively small companies, US-based firms and those headquartered in Europe and the Far East, and both familiar and less well-known names. Among the tickers he discusses are Walmart (WMT), Chipotle (CMG), Target (TGT), Sainsbury’s (JSAIY), Fiverr (FVRR), and many others. Don’t miss this in-depth analysis from Zacks’ Chief Equity Strategist!

This week, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist John Blank, PhD discusses:

• Top stocks in the Consumer Discretionary sector, which includes apparel, appliances, home furnishings, leisure services, media, consumer electronics and more. For this webinar, John defines “top” stocks using three screening metrics: market capitalization, number of analysts following the stock, and largest percent change in F1 EPS estimate (the most important element used in assigning a Zacks Rank to stocks).

• Using this framework, John then examines key metrics for these leading names, using Zacks charting to illustrate comparisons of the most relevant trends for these companies. To point out strengths and weaknesses among these stocks, he looks at metrics ranging from Revenue F12M, EPS F12M, and Return on Equity to Net Margin, Total Debt/Capital to EPS Consensus and EPS Surprise, to EBIT, Total Assets, Total Liabilities, and many more.

• John’s review of Consumer Discretionary players includes both large and relatively small companies, US-based firms and those headquartered in Europe, Japan and China, and both familiar and less well-known names. Among the tickers he discusses are Netflix (NFLX), Lululemon (LULU), Oriental Land Company (OLCLY), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Naspers (NPSNY), and many others. Don’t miss this in-depth analysis from Zacks’ Chief Equity Strategist!