This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA discusses:

• The latest entry in his regular series of macro updates. This week, Mayur zooms in on the labor market—an area of the economy that, up until now, has been strong. However, key job numbers including job openings (JOLTS), unemployment rate, full-time jobs and many others are trending toward recessionary levels.

• More alarming, cyclical employment indicators have been in YoY contraction for 12 consecutive months. These are leading indicators for a recession. Mayur also notes that rising unemployment is already being felt in consumer behavior, as seen in reduced personal savings and retail sales, plus sharply rising credit card and auto loan delinquencies.

• Does all this mean we’re headed for a recession? Mayur believes that a small rise in unemployment could push the economy into a recession. That’s not even considering the prospect of another bank crisis due to continuing enormous pressures in commercial real estate, consumer loan delinquencies, and more. While Mayur doesn’t recommend immediate portfolio changes, he is watching three key metrics that will prompt him to go full-blown defensive. Watch this week’s video to learn what those 3 recession indicators are!