This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• The recession that never happened…and what is next for the economy and market. Since Q2 2023, Mayur has made the case for a coming recession, based on “red flag” signals that have been reliable indicators of past recessions. However, these turned out to be false flags, and in this video Mayur walks through 10 of these signals, including ISM Manufacturing, Zacks Cyclical Proxy, inverted Treasury yield spread, unemployment rate, and others.

• Since these signals seem to be false flags for recession, what lies ahead? Mayur focuses on valuation risk, whether manufacturing can sustain its recovery, and how the new administration’s policies—including tariffs, tax cuts, and deportations of illegal immigrants—may affect the economy and markets.

• Mayur no longer believes recession is the base case, and offers his recommendations for investors. While he thinks it is a good idea to remain long the S&P 500, he also favors the Zacks Earnings Certain and the Zacks Deep Value Portfolios, which both offer high-quality companies that are able to withstand market volatility.

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

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