This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• The likelihood of a recession in the coming months. While the media has been discussing the increasing possibility of a recession in 2025, Mayur focuses on what macroeconomic data tells us. Instead of the standard “two months of contraction” definition, Mayur offers the definition used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), based on six data sets: real personal income; nonfarm payrolls; real PCE; manufacturing & trade sales; household employment; and industrial production.

• Using Advisor Tools charting, Mayur examines the latest data for each of these six economic indicators. He points out three characteristics that must be assessed for each indicator in deciding the state of the business cycle: depth, diffusion, and duration.

• What is Mayur’s conclusion? Watch this week’s video to find out—and to get his key takeaways on the state of the economy and the extremely elevated S&P 500. Mayur also offers his ideas for recession-resistant stocks with durable moats, steady compounding, and low volatility. Don’t miss this expert assessment of the state of the U.S. economy and market.

The views of Mayur Thaker, CFA are not necessarily the views of Zacks Investment Research.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.