This week, Zacks Equity Strategist Mayur Thaker, CFA, discusses:

• His latest update on macroeconomic trends. Regular followers of Mayur’s macro updates know that he has been forecasting a downturn for more than a year, based on key leading indicators, including jobs, market valuations, and consumer finances. In a shocking development, real Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Personal Savings, and Personal Savings Rate have all been revised upward—upending the bearish thesis.

• While this is a positive development, Mayur still wonders if a recession is truly off the table in the months ahead. He looks at a number of worrisome metrics that are typically associated with a downturn, including rising credit delinquencies, flat retail sales, and unemployment/underemployment trends that have crossed the recession threshold.

• Mayur concludes that we are headed for one of two scenarios: Either we get the projected economic growth from an AI-fueled productivity boom, or the projections are overly optimistic, and the economy slides into recession. To protect assets in this uncertain environment, Mayur recommends our Earnings Certain Proxy Portfolio, built to deliver low-volatility and durable earnings growth through all macroeconomic environments.